Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia     

Abera Birhanu Demeke  Alwin Keil  Manfred Zeller 《Climatic change》2011,108(1-2):185-206

Ethiopia??s agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households?? food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generate a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on this index, households are classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences are assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, and participate in local savings groups. Using the food security index as the dependent variable, we use a fixed effects instrumental variable regression model to identify determinants of households?? food security over time and find that rainfall variability is an important factor. Moreover, household size, participation in local savings groups, and livestock ownership positively affect food security. Results from multinomial logistic regression model complement the fixed effects instrumental variable regression results by showing that the level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability. The results highlight the need for efficient risk reduction and mitigation programs to improve risk exposure and coping ability of rural households. Careful promotion of investment in infrastructure to support irrigation and water resources development is one aspect worth considering.  相似文献   

Precipitation in the Northern Alpine Region: Case-Study-Type Validation of an Operational Forecast Model     

C. Keil  H. Volkert 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(2-4):161-173

Summary  Quality and limitations of current quantitative precipitation simulations are determined using the Deutschland-Modell of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The model independent validation data comprise the regular rain-gauge network of DWD, taylored composites of an international radar network, Doppler winds from the DLR research radar, and meteorological timeseries at a ground station. Area skill scores are compared for convectively dominated as well as more synoptically forced situations in the northern Alpine region. Inspection of the temporal evolution of the components comprising the atmospheric water budget and of the precipitation partition gives insight in the different nature of excitation mechanisms of heavy precipitation. The simulations are found to exhibit growing potential for follow-on hydrological applications, while a real break-through appears to necessitate the coming generation of non-hydrostatic operational forecast models with increased spatial resolution. Received March 2, 1999/Revised July 28, 1999  相似文献   

Recognizing mercurian meteorites     

Stanley G. Love  Klaus Keil 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1995,30(3):269-278

Abstract— With the recent realization that some meteorites may come from Mars and the Moon, it is worthwhile to consider whether meteorites from Mercury could exist in our collections and, if so, whether they could be recognized. The current state of ignorance about Mercury both increases the potential scientific value of mercurian meteorites and aggravates the problem of identifying them. Here, we review evidence supporting the possibility of impact launch and subsequent orbital evolution that could deliver rocks from Mercury to Earth and suggest criteria that could help identify a mercurian meteorite. Mercurian rocks are probably differentiated igneous rocks or breccias or melt rocks derived therefrom. Solar nebula models suggest that they are probably low in volatiles and moderately enriched in Al, Ti, and Ca oxides. Mercurian surface rocks contain no more than 5% FeO and may contain plagioclase. A significant fraction may be volcanic. They may possess an unusual isotopic composition. Most pristine mercurian rocks should have solidification ages of ～3.7 to ～4.4 Ga, but younger impact-remelted materials are possible. Because we know more about the space environment of Mercury than we do about the planet itself, surface-exposed rocks would be easiest to identify as mercurian. The unique solar-to-galactic cosmic-ray damage track ratio expected in materials exposed near the Sun may be useful in identifying a rock from Mercury. Mercury's magnetic field stands off the solar wind, so that solar-wind implants in mercurian regolith breccias may be scarce or fractionated compared to lunar ones. Mercurian regolith breccias should contain more agglutinates (or their recrystallized derivatives) and impact vapor deposits than any other and should show a higher fraction of exogenic chondritic materials than analogous lunar breccias. No known meteorite group matches these criteria. A misclassified mercurian meteorite would most likely be found among the aubrites or the anorthositic lunar meteorites.  相似文献   

Further classification of ordinary chondrites from the Monnig Collection     

Arthur J. Ehlmann  Klaus Keil 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1994,29(1):71-73

Abstract— Four ordinary chondrites from the Oscar Monnig Meteorite Collection were classified into compositional groups, petrologic types, and shock stages: Wray (b), Colorado, L5S2; Round Top (a), Texas, L5S3; Round Top (b), Texas, H4S3; Hassayampa, Arizona, H4S3.  相似文献   

Classification of Six Ordinary Chondrites from Texas     

Arthur J. Ehlmann  Klaus Keil 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1988,23(4):361-364

Abstract— Based on optical microscopy, modal and electron microprobe analyses, six ordinary chondrites from Texas preserved in the Monnig Meteorite Collection at Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, Texas, were classified in compositional groups, petrologic types, and shock facies. These meteorites are Comanche (stone), L5c; Haskell, L5c; Deport (a), H4b; Naruna (a), H4b; Naruna (b), H4b; and Clarendon (b), H5d.  相似文献   

A comparison of non-hydrolytic methods for extracting amino acids and proteins from coastal marine sediments     

Brook L. Nunn  Richard G. Keil 《Marine Chemistry》2006

Advances in analytical techniques now allow for the potential analysis of intact peptides and proteins isolated from marine sediments. However, there is no established technique for the extraction of macromolecular materials from marine sediments. Six different methods for extracting the amino acid component from coastal marine sediments were compared to the standard hot acid hydrolysis technique for their percent recovery and amino acid composition. The standard hot acid hydrolysis on dried, whole sediments released the greatest concentration of total amino acids (PS-THAA; 3.52 mg gdwt^− 1 ± 10% (SMD)), yet this only accounted for 22% of the total nitrogen in Puget Sound sediments (Washington, USA). Repeated hydrolysis of the same samples did not improve the recovery of nitrogen by more than an additional 10%. Base extraction (0.5 N NaOH) was the second best method for recovering amino acid nitrogen, releasing 60% of the Puget Sound total hydrolyzable amino acids (PS-THAA) (corresponding to 13% of the total sedimentary nitrogen), and has the advantage that it does not rely on peptide hydrolysis to free the nitrogenous component from the sediment matrix. The amino acid distribution of the 0.5 N NaOH extract was not significantly different than the initial THAA. Other non-hydrolyzing methods released lower yields of amino acids (Triton X-100 ≥ hot water > 50 mM NH₄HCO₃ > HF), but might prove to be of use to investigators interested in specific fractions of sedimentary organic nitrogen because these four methods had distinctly different amino acid compositions (enrichments in basic amino acids and depletions in acidic amino acids). Treatments with HF both before and after traditional hydrolysis and/or extractions with base did not release any more of the sedimentary nitrogen. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that a large fraction of the sedimentary nitrogen (TN) is protected within an organic matrix.  相似文献   

An east–west‐trending Quaternary tunnel valley in the south‐eastern North Sea and its seismic–sedimentological interpretation     

Daniel A. Hepp  Dierk Hebbeln  Stefan Kreiter  Hanno Keil  Christian Bathmann  Jürgen Ehlers  Tobias Mörz 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(8):844-853

A combination of a dense reflection seismic grid and up to 50‐m‐long records from sediment cores and cone penetration tests was used to study the geometry and infill lithology of an E–W‐trending buried tunnel valley in the south‐eastern North Sea. In relation to previously known primarily N–S‐trending tunnel valleys in this area, the geometry and infill of this 38‐km‐long and up to 3‐km‐wide valley is comparable, but its E–W orientation is exceptional. The vertical cross‐section geometry may result from subglacial sediment erosion of advancing ice streams and secondary incision by large episodic meltwater discharges with high flow rates. The infill is composed of meltwater sands and reworked till remnants on the valley flanks that are overlain by late Elsterian rhythmic, laminated, lacustrine fine‐grained sediments towards the centre of the valley. A depression in the valley centre is filled with sediments most likely from the Holsteinian transgression and a subsequent post‐Holsteinian lacustrine quiet‐water setting. The exceptional axis orientation of this tunnel valley points to a regional N–S‐oriented ice front during the late Elsterian. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Lignin phenols used to infer organic matter sources to Sepetiba Bay – RJ,Brasil     

C.E. Rezende  W.C. Pfeiffer  L.A. Martinelli  E. Tsamakis  J.I. Hedges  R.G. Keil 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Lignin phenols were measured in the sediments of Sepitiba Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and in bedload sediments and suspended sediments of the four major fluvial inputs to the bay; São Francisco and Guandu Channels and the Guarda and Cação Rivers. Fluvial suspended lignin yields (Σ8 3.5–14.6 mgC 10 g dw⁻¹) vary little between the wet and dry seasons and are poorly correlated with fluvial chlorophyll concentrations (0.8–50.2 μgC L⁻¹). Despite current land use practices that favor grassland agriculture or industrial uses, fluvial lignin compositions are dominated by a degraded leaf-sourced material. The exception is the Guarda River, which has a slight influence from grasses. The Lignin Phenol Vegetation Index, coupled with acid/aldehyde and 3.5 Db/V ratios, indicate that degraded leaf-derived phenols are also the primary preserved lignin component in the bay. The presence of fringe Typha sp. and Spartina sp. grass beds surrounding portions of the Bay are not reflected in the lignin signature. Instead, lignin entering the bay appears to reflect the erosion of soils containing a degraded signature from the former Atlantic rain forest that once dominated the watershed, instead of containing a significant signature derived from current agricultural uses. A three-component mixing model using the LPVI, atomic N:C ratios, and stable carbon isotopes (which range between –26.8 and –21.8‰) supports the hypothesis that fluvial inputs to the bay are dominated by planktonic matter (78% of the input), with lignin dominated by leaf (14% of the input) over grass (6%). Sediments are composed of a roughly 50–50 mixture of autochthonous material and terrigenous material, with lignin being primarily sourced from leaf.  相似文献   

Bulk chemical compositions of Al-rich objects from Rumuruti (R) chondrites: Implications for their origin     

Surya Snata Rout  Klaus Keil  Addi Bischoff 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2010,70(1):35-53

R chondrites are a distinct group of chondritic meteorites with unique mineralogical and chemical compositions. They contain various types of Al-rich objects [Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), Al-rich chondrules and fragments], whose mineralogical compositions and classifications were previously determined by Rout and Bischoff (2008). Here, we report on the bulk compositions of 126 such Al-rich objects determined by broad-beam electron probe microanalysis.Most of the CAIs, except a few, are significantly altered by complex nebular and/or parent body processes and the determination of their pristine composition is difficult. We found that the simple concentric spinel-rich inclusions have high Al₂O₃ (21–72 wt%) correlated with their high modal spinel. The subgroup of simple concentric spinel-rich CAIs have a high Al₂O₃ (21–57 wt%) and also sometimes high FeO (up to 36 wt%), due to a high hercynitic component in the spinel. One simple concentric spinel- and hibonite-rich CAI H030/L, identified as a HAL-type CAI by isotopic studies reported elsewhere, has a highly refractory composition (Al₂O₃～72 wt%). Most of the simple concentric spinel- and fassaite-rich CAIs have consistently high CaO (～2.5–17 wt%) compared to other simple concentric spinel-rich inclusions group, where only some inclusions have high CaO (up to 15 wt%). Simple concentric spinel- and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs are heavily altered and have high Na₂O (up to ～12.5 wt%).The three analyzed fassaite-rich spherules have high CaO and Al₂O₃, and complex spinel- and fassaite-rich CAIs have high CaO (up to 23 wt%) and SiO₂ (up to 41 wt%). Most of the complex spinel- and plagioclase-rich CAIs are altered and contain high amounts of secondary oligoclase. However, a few are less affected by secondary alteration and these are characterized by relatively high CaO (up to 24 wt%) and Al₂O₃ (18–33 wt%); complex spinel and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs are similar to the concentric spinel- and Na,Al-alteration product-rich CAIs. Due to Fe- and alkali-metasomatism, the vast majority of the inclusions in this subgroup were heavily altered, either in a nebular or parent body environment. As a result of this alteration, they contain high FeO and Na₂O+K₂O+Cl.Almost all inclusions have a Ca/Al-ratio below the solar ratio. This suggests that significant Ca/Al fractionation occurred during the formation of most CAIs, most probably due to disequilibrium condensation of spinel prior to melilite. However, a distillation process cannot be ruled out for some CAIs in producing the spinel enrichment. Some porous and fine grained CAIs may have been produced by agglomeration of refractory dust rich in spinel and fassaite. The HAL-type CAI, H030/L, most likely formed by distillation, similar to most of the HAL-type inclusions. Phase equilibrium analysis, in the CMAS system, shows that the fassaite-bearing spherules most likely formed by metastable crystallization and disequilibrium processes. Al-rich chondrules are characterized by >10 wt% Al₂O₃, and most of these also have high FeO and Na₂O. Considering their bulk compositions, their precursors seem to have been a mixture of a ferromagnesian chondrule component rich in olivine and an anorthite–spinel–pyroxene–nepheline-rich CAI component. The mineral assemblages of some of the less altered Al-rich chondrules conform to those predicted by phase equilibrium studies.  相似文献   

Chondrules in H3 chondrites: textures,compositions and origins     

Gayle Lux  Klaus Keil  G.Jeffrey Taylor 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1981,45(5):675-685

Major and minor element bulk compositions of 90 individual chondrules and 16 compound chondrule sets in unequilibrated (type 3) H-group chondrites were determined in polished thin sections by broad beam electron probe analysis and the chondrules were classified petrographically into six textural types (barred olivine, porphyritic olivine, porphyritic pyroxene, barred pyroxene, radiating pyroxene, fine-grained). Although analyses of individual chondrules scatter widely, the mean composition of each textural type (except barred pyroxene) is rather distinct, as verified by discriminant function analysis. Al₂O₃, TiO₂ and Na₃O are correlated in chondrules, but Al₂O₃ and CaO do not correlate. Compound chondrule sets were found to consist almost entirely of chondrules or partial chondrules of similar texture and composition.The data suggest that composition played a conspicuous role in producing the observed textures of chondrules, though other factors such as cooling rates and degrees of supercooling prior to nucleation were also important. If compound chondrules formed and joined when they were still molten or plastic, then the data suggest that chondrules of each textural type could have formed together in space or time. The correlation of Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ with Na₂O and not with CaO appears to rule out formation of chondrules by direct equilibrium condensation from the nebula. We conclude that the most reasonable model for formation of the majority of chondrules is that they originated from mixtures of differing fractions of high-, intermediate- and low-temperature nebular condensates that underwent melting in space. A small percentage of chondrules might have formed by impacts in meteorite parent-body regoliths.  相似文献